In plain language · Published October 2, 2026 · Updated October 5, 2026
The 282-page water plan, in plain language.
49%
That's how much of the development already proposed in 2022 the water plant's spare capacity could serve. Not my estimate. The municipality's own master plan, in its own words. And water isn't even the tight pipe.
After the September 29 all-candidates meeting, one theme kept coming back that nobody had planned: communication. Then Russ Crook, our acclaimed Ward 1 councillor-elect, said it better than I could. The municipality publishes information, but publishing is not communicating. He pointed at the 2022 Water and Wastewater Servicing Master Plan, 282 pages of engineering, and asked for a version a person can actually use. This page is my honest attempt, with the report's own page numbers beside every claim so you can check my reading.
What this document is
In 2022 the municipality hired B.M. Ross to measure our water and sewer systems and map what growth will need. It covers Kincardine's water and sewage plants, Tiverton's wells, and the BEC treatment plant that serves Tiverton and the industrial lands near Bruce Power. It was finished in June 2023, so every number on this page is a 2022 snapshot. The plan counts demand in ERUs, roughly one average customer's worth of service. I'll say homes' worth.
If you're on a well and septic, these pipes aren't yours, but what gets built in this municipality rides on them, and Tiverton's wells are in here too.
The lagoons are not beside our sewage plant. The lagoons are our sewage plant.
The treatment plant at 520 Bruce Avenue is one aerated lagoon cell and two conventional ones, plus phosphorus removal and UV disinfection, discharging treated water to Lake Huron (p. 64). Worth knowing before any conversation about growth, housing, or the smell.
| System | As of 2022 |
|---|---|
| Water plant, rated capacityWhat the plant can treat in a day (ES-3) | 11,563 m³ |
| Water, biggest day so farAbout 60 per cent of capacity (ES-3) | 6,954 m³ |
| Water, spare room after commitmentsAfter subtracting development already approved (ES-3) | 1,076 homes |
| Sewage plant, rated capacityAnnual average basis (ES-6) | 5,910 m³ |
| Sewage, spare room after commitmentsThe smaller number, and the one that decides (ES-6) | 924 homes |
| The 2022 queueDevelopment proposed or pending when the plan was written, homes and commercial counted together (ES-3) | 2,187 homes |
| How much of that queue the water's spare room covers | ≈49% |
The plan's own words: the uncommitted reserve "only accounts for approximately 49%" of the 2,187 ERUs pending (ES-3). One "home" here is an ERU, roughly one average customer's worth of service.
Read the ledger like this. Of the 2,187 homes' worth already in the 2022 queue, the water plant had room for about 1,076, roughly half. The sewage plant had room for about 924, and if everything on that list became a real connection, sewage would fall short by about 1,200 homes' worth (p. 67). That's the sentence I keep repeating: sewage, not water, decides how much housing gets built here.
Two honest caveats before anyone carves that into a sign. A queue is not a guarantee: proposals shrink, die, and build out over years, which is why the plan itself says there was no immediate need to expand the sewage plant. And a capacity wall is not a forever wall: plants get expanded, and the plan expects that question to be reopened as the reserve fills. What the wall does mean is that every year of growth spends it, expansions take years to deliver, and the municipality's copy of this arithmetic is dated 2022.
Four more numbers worth knowing
1,218 m³
The sewage capacity we'd be short every single day if everything proposed in 2022 became real customers. Under the faster growth scenario the plant runs out around 2037.
Master Plan p.67 · ES-6
265 m³/day
How far Tiverton's wells were already overcommitted against the permit that governs them. The plan's word, not mine. To be fair to the whole page, it also says added capacity likely isn't needed until about 2039, and recommends studying a new well versus connecting to Kincardine.
Master Plan ES-4
55 m³
The water storage surplus, about one per cent over what provincial guidelines recommend. Roughly one backyard pool of margin. The plan's fix is a disinfection change that frees up tanks we already have.
Master Plan ES-3 · p.42
$5,000
The plan's own price for refreshing the sewage capacity number, on its own schedule: "every 5 years; sooner if development status warrants or flows change noticeably."
Master Plan ES-9
And the smell. Russ's actual question
Whether the odour near the lagoons is predictable. Straight answer: the plan does not predict odour, and I would rather tell you that than pretend it does. What it does say: in 2021 exactly one odour complaint was logged, at the effluent station, and the municipality was considering adding a dumping station at the lagoons during upgrades to reduce odour (p. 23).
It also records a pattern worth knowing. In hot summer months the oxygen in the aerated cell "typically falls to less than 2 mg/L" and operators adjust the aerators to compensate (p. 69). The plan expected those aerators to be replaced with a diffused air system by spring 2023 (p. 69). How that system is actually doing in 2026 is a different set of documents, and I've been writing about those on my page all month.
What the plan can't tell you
Whether today's pipeline fits inside what's left, because every number above is a 2022 measurement. I asked the municipality exactly this in writing in September 2026. The written answer, sent to all candidates, was straight: that comparison takes staff and engineering time, and it will be done as part of the next master plan update, scheduled for 2027.
Two things are true at once, and I want to be fair about both.
The municipality is not asleep at the wheel. The plan itself asked for a capacity review five years after completion, which would be 2028, so a 2027 update is actually ahead of the plan's own schedule (ES-6). On the water side, an expansion study was already underway in 2022 because of Bruce Power's interest in buying municipal water (ES-3), and that is now a real project in this year's budget, with Bruce Power carrying 57.53 per cent of the cost. When I asked staff my capacity questions, I had honest written answers within the week.
And also: that $5,000 line above is the plan telling us this number is cheap to keep current, and telling us when to do it sooner. A queue that was already double the spare room in 2022, plus everything Bruce C could bring, is what sooner looks like to me.
What's changed since the 2022 snapshot
Update · Added October 5, 2026
This page promised to stay current, so here is the first update. The Tiverton study the plan recommended (the 265 card above) has since been completed. In October 2025 the environmental assessment finished, and the preferred solution is to connect Tiverton to Kincardine's water system through a booster pumping station at Inverhuron, because Kincardine's plant has the capacity and the village's wells were aging. For Tiverton, that means a supply that no longer depends on those wells. It also means some of the spare room behind the 49 per cent figure at the top of this page will now serve Tiverton too. The 2022 arithmetic keeps getting older in both directions, which is the whole argument for refreshing it before the 2027 update gets built on top of it.
My ask is small and specific.
Not a new master plan. The $5,000 arithmetic check, now, so the 2027 update gets built on current numbers instead of 2022 numbers. If you elect me, that is one of the first motions I bring.
What I'm doing with this
A report the people paid for should be readable by the people who paid for it. This one is competent engineering. It was just never translated. So this is the first entry in a series I'm calling In Plain Language: one municipal document at a time, with the page numbers attached, so you never have to take my word for anything. What you pay for water and sewer is already its own page: the bill, shown in full.
Found something in those 282 pages I missed or misread? hello@voteshah.ca. If you're right, it gets fixed here, dated, and you get the credit.
Sources: Municipality of Kincardine 2022 Water and Wastewater Servicing Master Plan Update (B.M. Ross, June 2023), pages ES-3, ES-4, ES-6, ES-9, 23, 42, 64, 67, 69 · Municipality of Kincardine written answers to candidates, September 29, 2026 · 2026 Final Budget, Kincardine Water Treatment Plant project cost share · Notice of Study Completion, Municipal Class EA, Expansion of the Tiverton Water Supply System, October 29, 2025.
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